Regulated electricity prices fell for most Australians from 1 July 2026: the Australian Energy Regulator cut Default Market Offer bills by 3.4% to 7.2% in NSW and South East Queensland, and Victoria’s reference bill fell about 5% to $1,591. South Australia rose 1.4%. Even so, NSW, Queensland and South Australian reference bills are still 27% to 36% above 2020-21. This page charts the history, what drives a bill and what is known about what comes next.
Key facts
- The Australian Energy Regulator’s 2026-27 Default Market Offer flat-rate annual bill is $1,899 in Ausgrid, $2,328 in Endeavour Energy, $1,988 in Energex, $2,604 in Essential Energy and $2,334 in SA Power Networks, effective 1 July 2026 to 30 June 2027.
- The Essential Services Commission’s Victorian Default Offer average annual bill for 2026-27 is $1,591 at 4,000 kWh a year, down $84 (5%) from $1,675 in 2025-26.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that electricity prices rose 12.8% in the 12 months to September 2026, which it attributes largely to the ending of Commonwealth electricity rebates.
- Network costs are the largest part of the Victorian Default Offer, $603 of a $1,591 bill (about 38%), according to the Essential Services Commission’s 2026-27 final decision.
- The AEMO reported an average National Electricity Market wholesale price of $74 per MWh in the June 2026 quarter, down 47% on a year earlier, as reported by pv magazine Australia in July 2026.
- Solar Cobber calculation: Default Market Offer bills in NSW, South East Queensland and South Australia are 27.4% to 36.1% higher in 2026-27 than in 2020-21, while Victoria’s reference bill is 4.9% higher than in 2020.
Why the rebate ending and the price cut both show up
Your bill and the regulator’s price are different things. The 12.8% CPI rise measures what households paid in the year to September 2026, and the ABS says it is largely due to the end of Commonwealth electricity rebates (the last $150 household credit ran to 31 December 2025, covered in our energy bill rebates guide). The regulated prices below are the underlying rates before any rebate. Both can be true: tariffs fell on 1 July 2026 while the cash cost to households went up.
For the current cents per kWh and supply charge in every state, see electricity cost per kWh in Australia. This page is about direction and causes.
How much have regulated electricity prices risen since 2020?
NSW, Queensland and South Australian reference bills have risen 27% to 36% since 2020-21, with two big steps: a 20% to 24% jump in 2023-24 and a 4% to 10% rise in 2025-26. The Default Market Offer (DMO) is the maximum price retailers can charge standing-offer customers in NSW, South East Queensland and South Australia.
- Ausgrid
- Endeavour
- Energex
- Essential
- SA Power Networks
Source: AER Default Market Offer fact sheets and final determinations, 2020-21 (30 April 2020) to 2026-27 (26 May 2026). Usage assumptions differ by network and shifted slightly between years, so compare each line with itself over time.
View the data as a table
| Ausgrid | Endeavour | Energex | Essential | SA Power Networks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | A$1,462 | A$1,711 | A$1,508 | A$1,960 | A$1,832 |
| 2021-22 | A$1,393 | A$1,609 | A$1,455 | A$1,907 | A$1,716 |
| 2022-23 | A$1,512 | A$1,836 | A$1,620 | A$2,092 | A$1,840 |
| 2023-24 | A$1,827 | A$2,228 | A$1,969 | A$2,527 | A$2,279 |
| 2024-25 | A$1,810 | A$2,209 | A$2,052 | A$2,499 | A$2,216 |
| 2025-26 | A$1,965 | A$2,411 | A$2,143 | A$2,741 | A$2,301 |
| 2026-27 | A$1,899 | A$2,328 | A$1,988 | A$2,604 | A$2,334 |
Every network jumped in 2023-24 and none has returned to its 2021-22 level. The table gives the year-on-year change.
| Year | Ausgrid | Endeavour | Energex | Essential | SA Power Networks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | -4.7% | -6.0% | -3.5% | -2.7% | -6.3% |
| 2022-23 | +8.5% | +14.1% | +11.3% | +9.7% | +7.2% |
| 2023-24 | +20.8% | +21.4% | +21.5% | +20.8% | +23.9% |
| 2024-25 | -0.9% | -0.9% | +4.2% | -1.1% | -2.8% |
| 2025-26 | +8.6% | +9.1% | +4.4% | +9.7% | +3.8% |
| 2026-27 | -3.4% | -3.4% | -7.2% | -5.0% | +1.4% |
Solar Cobber calculation from the AER annual prices above, as at November 2026. The AER’s own stated changes agree wherever it states them. For a household, a flat rate bill that is 30% higher than in 2020-21 is why the saving per kWh from rooftop solar is larger now than it was then.
Victorian electricity prices: a flatter history
Victoria’s reference bill has moved much less. The Victorian Default Offer (VDO) average bill was $1,517 for calendar 2020 and is $1,591 for 2026-27, a rise of 4.9%, with a peak of $1,755 in 2023-24.
Source: Essential Services Commission, Victorian Default Offer decisions 2019 to 2026-27. Periods are those the ESC set: Jul to Dec 2019, calendar 2020, Jan to Aug 2021, Sep to Dec 2021, Jan to Jun 2022, then financial years. 2020 and 2021 figures are rounded up by the ESC.
View the data as a table
| VDO average bill | |
|---|---|
| Jul 2019 | A$1,408 |
| 2020 | A$1,517 |
| Jan 2021 | A$1,358 |
| Sep 2021 | A$1,412 |
| Jan 2022 | A$1,342 |
| 2022-23 | A$1,403 |
| 2023-24 | A$1,755 |
| 2024-25 | A$1,655 |
| 2025-26 | A$1,675 |
| 2026-27 | A$1,591 |
The VDO fell in 2024-25 and again in 2026-27, so Victoria has not seen the 2023-24 jump hold the way the DMO regions have.
Source: Solar Cobber calculation from AER Default Market Offer and ESC Victorian Default Offer published annual bills. Change = 2026-27 bill divided by the earlier bill, minus 1. The two regulators use different usage assumptions and start years, so compare the pattern, not single points.
View the data as a table
| Change | |
|---|---|
| Endeavour (NSW) | 36.1% |
| Essential (NSW) | 32.9% |
| Energex (Qld) | 31.8% |
| Ausgrid (NSW) | 29.9% |
| SA Power Networks (SA) | 27.4% |
| Powercor (Vic) | 7.6% |
| AusNet (Vic) | 6.2% |
| Vic average | 4.9% |
| Jemena (Vic) | 4.5% |
| CitiPower (Vic) | 4.3% |
| United Energy (Vic) | 1.4% |
The five DMO networks rose 27% to 36% against 1% to 8% in Victoria’s zones. As a yardstick, the Essential Services Commission applies the ABS CPI all-groups index, which moved from 79.70 in June 2019 to 101.70 in March 2026, about 27.6%, so DMO bills have risen at or above general inflation and Victorian bills well below it.
What drives an electricity bill?
The biggest part of a regulated bill is the poles and wires. In Victoria’s 2026-27 default offer, network costs are $603 of $1,591 (about 38%), wholesale electricity $491 (about 31%) and environmental schemes $62 (about 4%).
- Network
- Wholesale
- Retail operating
- Environmental
- GST
- Margin and other
Source: Essential Services Commission, Victorian Default Offer 2026-27 Final Decision Paper, Appendix D Table D.4, 20 May 2026. Margin and other is retail operating margin ($76, $72) plus other costs ($21, $18).
View the data as a table
| Network | Wholesale | Retail operating | Environmental | GST | Margin and other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | A$616 | A$501 | A$194 | A$114 | A$152 | A$97 |
| 2026-27 | A$603 | A$491 | A$198 | A$62 | A$145 | A$90 |
Environmental costs fell the most, 46%, from $114 to $62, because certificate prices and retailers’ certificate obligations were lower. Network costs fell about 2% and wholesale about 2%. Retail operating costs rose slightly on inflation. This is Victoria’s stack; the AER builds the DMO the same way but we did not open its dollar breakdown. For the fuller breakdown of what solar can and cannot offset, see our average electricity bill guide.
| Cost component | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Network | $616 | $603 | -$13 |
| Wholesale electricity | $501 | $491 | -$10 |
| Retail operating (incl. acquisition) | $194 | $198 | +$4 |
| Environmental | $114 | $62 | -$52 |
| GST | $152 | $145 | -$7 |
| Retail operating margin | $76 | $72 | -$4 |
| Other costs | $21 | $18 | -$3 |
| Total | $1,675 | $1,591 | -$84 |
Source: Essential Services Commission, Victorian Default Offer 2026-27 Final Decision Paper, Appendix D. For a household, only the network and wholesale lines are large enough to move a bill much, and a flat daily supply charge recovers most of the network part regardless of how much you use.
What is happening to wholesale prices?
Wholesale prices have fallen sharply: the AEMO reported a National Electricity Market average of $74 per MWh in the June 2026 quarter, down 47% year on year and the lowest June quarter since 2020, as reported by pv magazine Australia on 28 July 2026. Western Australia’s separate market averaged $118 per MWh, up 30%. We did not read AEMO’s September 2026 quarter figures, so this page uses the June quarter. Our wholesale electricity prices guide covers regional and daily patterns.
Wholesale cost is already priced into 2026-27 default offers: the Essential Services Commission bases it on ASX futures contract prices up to 21 April 2026. It also notes that base swap prices rose from late February 2026 on global fuel supply uncertainty and later appeared to stabilise, a risk that would feed into future determinations.
Where regulated prices moved for 2026-27
Most regulated prices fell, but not everywhere. Victoria fell 3% to 8% by zone, South East Queensland 7.2% and NSW 3.4% to 5.0%, while South Australia rose 1.4% and the ACT’s standing offer rose 2.73% on average.
Source: AER final determination (26 May 2026); ESC (20 May 2026); ICRC Report 2 of 2026 (May 2026). Victorian percentages are Solar Cobber calculations from the ESC's dollar bills; the ESC rounds its own. ACT is per the ICRC executive summary for a 6,500 kWh customer.
View the data as a table
| Change | |
|---|---|
| SA Power Networks (SA) | 1.4% |
| ACT standing offer | 2.7% |
| United Energy (Vic) | -3.2% |
| Ausgrid (NSW) | -3.4% |
| Endeavour (NSW) | -3.4% |
| Powercor (Vic) | -4.1% |
| CitiPower (Vic) | -4.2% |
| Jemena (Vic) | -4.6% |
| Essential (NSW) | -5.0% |
| Energex (Qld) | -7.2% |
| AusNet (Vic) | -8.4% |
Outside these areas, the picture is mixed. Synergy’s Home Plan A1 in Western Australia charges 33.2621 c/kWh from 1 July 2026, up 2.75% from 32.3719 c/kWh (WA Government). Regional Queensland’s Ergon Tariff 11 usage rate fell 12.4%, from 32.973 to 28.895 c/kWh (Ergon Energy, QCA notified prices). Our guide to the Default Market Offer and Victorian Default Offer explains how the reference price is set.
What do official forecasts say?
We could not open the Australian Energy Market Commission’s residential price trends report in November 2026, so we do not quote its forecasts. What the regulators say is that 2026-27 prices are set and fixed to 30 June 2027; the AER and ESC have each published their determinations in May, so the next are expected around May 2027. For what households can do now, see the Solar Sharer Offer, which adds free midday power on default offers in NSW, South East Queensland and South Australia.
What it means for your solar or battery decision
Higher grid prices raise the value of every kWh you generate and use yourself, and the fall for 2026-27 slightly lowers it. A kWh used at home avoids the usage rate, typically 28 to 42 cents in DMO regions, while an export earns a feed-in tariff of a few cents (see the feed-in tariff tracker). The daily supply charge does not shrink with solar, so the saving is on usage only. Our guides to whether solar is worth it and whether batteries are worth it put these numbers into paybacks. To compare quotes, browse the solar installer directory or the top 10 solar panel installers.
The Australian Energy Regulator’s own explainer shows how a reference price is built up.
Method and sources
Default Market Offer prices are the AER’s annual residential flat-rate prices without controlled load, read from each year’s fact sheet or final determination (2020-21 to 2026-27); the 2019-20 value is derived by the AER’s stated change, so we do not chart it. Victorian figures are the ESC’s compliant maximum annual bills at 4,000 kWh, GST inclusive, from each decision, with the 2024-25 zone figures reconstructed from stated changes. The CPI electricity figure is from the ABS Consumer Price Index release of 28 October 2026. Solar Cobber calculations are labelled: cumulative and annual percentage changes and the Victorian percentage changes. Data checked 14 November 2026.
FAQ
Why is electricity so expensive in Australia?
Electricity is expensive mainly because of network costs and, in recent years, wholesale costs. In Victoria’s 2026-27 default offer, network costs are about 38% of the bill and wholesale about 31%. Regional networks also spread fixed costs over fewer customers.
Did electricity prices go up in 2026?
Regulated prices mostly fell from 1 July 2026, by 3.4% to 7.2% in NSW and South East Queensland and about 5% in Victoria, but rose 1.4% in South Australia. The ABS says the CPI electricity index rose 12.8% in the year to September 2026, largely because Commonwealth rebates ended.
How much have electricity prices risen since 2020?
NSW, South East Queensland and South Australian Default Market Offer bills are 27.4% to 36.1% higher in 2026-27 than in 2020-21. Victoria’s reference bill is 4.9% higher than in 2020. These are Solar Cobber calculations from regulator figures.
What was the biggest electricity price rise?
The 2023-24 Default Market Offer, when bills rose 20.8% to 23.9% across NSW, South East Queensland and South Australia. That is the largest annual rise in the regulated series back to 2020-21.
What is the average electricity bill in Australia?
There is no single national figure; the 2026-27 regulated reference bills run from $1,591 in Victoria to $2,604 in regional NSW. Our average electricity bill guide shows the detail.
Will electricity prices go up or down in 2027?
We cannot say; prices for 2026-27 are fixed until 30 June 2027 and the AER and ESC have published their determinations each May. The Essential Services Commission notes that wholesale futures prices rose after February 2026 on global fuel uncertainty, which is a risk to watch.
Are wholesale electricity prices falling?
Yes, in the National Electricity Market the AEMO reported $74 per MWh in the June 2026 quarter, down 47% year on year. Retail bills respond slowly because retailers buy ahead and network costs have not fallen as fast.
Is a market offer cheaper than the Default Market Offer?
Usually, and most households are on market offers. The AER says only 8% of households in DMO regions remain on the default price, as at March 2026; see electricity cost per kWh in Australia.
Sources
- AER, Default market offer prices 2026-27 final determination and media release, 26 May 2026
- AER Default Market Offer 2024-25 final determination and 2025-26 final determination
- Essential Services Commission, Victorian Default Offer 2026-27 Final Decision Paper
- ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026
- pv magazine Australia, AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics report (28 July 2026)
- ICRC, retail electricity price recalibration 2026-27
- WA Government, household electricity pricing and Ergon Energy, residential tariffs
About this guide
This guide was written by the Solar Cobber editorial team from independent desk research checked in November 2026. Solar Cobber is a free directory that may earn referral or advertising fees from installers, and commercial relationships never affect our content. This is general information, not financial advice. To report an error, contact us.
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